Gloomy is probably the best word to describe New England's weather on this Sunday. While not all areas received rain today, most were socked in under the clouds all day with fairly humid conditions. Most of those who did see rain today likely saw some torrential downpours and possibly even a rumble or two of thunder. Even with this being the case, most areas have completely dried out so fireworks plans should go on schedule. I am more optimistic about Monday's weather than I was about today's. However, a slow moving cold front will likely maintain a threat of showers and thunderstorms across parts of Southern and Eastern New England on Monday.
The atmosphere out ahead of this cold front is very moist, meaning any thunderstorm that is able to develop on Monday will be capable of producing torrential downpours. I do think that with the passing cold front, a severe thunderstorm or two will be possible in areas out ahead of it, with torrential downpours and gusty winds likely being the primary hazards. The areas I see as most favorable for a severe storm include Eastern CT, Eastern MA, Southwestern ME, Southeastern NH & RI, as the cold front will pass east of these areas later Monday. The good news, this will not be a widespread threat as we do not see the needed support in the upper levels of the atmosphere for a widespread severe weather event, such as what some of us saw on June 1 and many of us on June 9. Another story regarding Monday - it will be a bit on the warm side. This looks to be the case mainly in Southern New England, across inland locations, and cooler on the coast - but not by significant proportions. A 90 degree reading or two is possible on the Fourth. I expect widespread mid-upper 80's to be the norm in the south on Monday, with upper 70's and low 80's further north. It will also be rather humid, until the cold front passes. This will be a temporary relief from the humidity on Tuesday, before another cold front moves ever closer to our region, causing another rise in the humidity to set the stage for more thunderstorms by weeks end.
While the oppressive humidity should take a one day hiatus before returning on Wednesday, the summer like temperatures should stick with us for most of if not all week. While it will still be on the warm side with temperatures possibly rising close to 90, Tuesday is my pick of the week. The cold front will have passed and humidity levels will be down. The next warm front will lift to our north on Wednesday, and this will be the focus for the increase in the humidity levels during the day. I do think that Wednesday will be dry, with the possibility of a pop up thunderstorm. Temperatures could linger in the 90's for many in Southern New England, a bit more comfortable further north in the 80's.
I see Thursday as the day for potential widespread thunderstorm development. A cold front will exit out of the Great Lakes Region overnight Wednesday into Thursday, placing New England in the battle zone for thunderstorm potential. The atmosphere could become quite unstable Thursday afternoon given the fact that it will be very humid. The only caveat to this potential is the possibility of cloud cover on Thursday morning, and these chances may increase with northward extent. As of right now I do think the potential for severe weather could very well exist Thursday afternoon across New England. While this threat remains four days out, and nothing is definite, keep this potential in mind should you be planning outdoor activities for Thursday afternoon. I will update this situation later in the week if/when a threat becomes more apparent.
Temperatures do cool off slightly on Friday and Saturday, but more importantly, the humidity levels will decrease once again! Friday should shape up to be a decent weather day, but this would be entirely dependent on how soon/late the next cold front passes to the east of New England. Regardless, at this point the first half of the weekend looks spectacular, as humidity should decrease behind the front. More importantly, it looks dry!
Stay tuned throughout this week for more on this weeks weather headlines!
-Alex Avalos
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