Good Sunday Morning everyone.
Before we dive into the severe weather threat for Monday, I just want to quickly mention that Air Quality Alerts are in effect for Coastal Connecticut and most of Rhode Island (excluding Providence County) until 10:00PM this evening. Should you have a respiratory condition, please consider postponing any strenuous activity you plan to undertake outside this afternoon.
Looks like we will sneak in one more nice fairly nice day (humidity increasing) before we see a fairly active weather day tomorrow. The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms looks to develop Monday afternoon. As of right now, the primary threats look to be in the form of damaging winds and heavy rain. I mentioned the threat of an isolated/brief tornado in my post last night. I am a bit concerned, after watching this mornings model runs roll in, that this threat looks to be higher for tomorrow, as the threat of supercell development has become more apparent.
All of New England needs to monitor this severe weather threat very closely. The greatest threat region looks to exist across Southern New England, where greater surface heating will likely be realized, in addition to later timing of the cold front. Regardless of location, however, this threat is going to be dependent on cloud cover tomorrow. With a lack of clouds tomorrow, the atmosphere will rapidly destabilize through the morning hours and into the afternoon. I will be monitoring trends throughout the day today, stay tuned for possible updates later today!
-Alex Avalos
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