Good Sunday Evening everybody!
I hope everybody was able to enjoy this absolutely gorgeous weekend. I apologize for the lack of updates over the past several days. With that said, let's take a look at what's in store for the beginning of your upcoming work week.
One observation that should be noted as I write this is the fact that dew points are actually a bit higher at this hour than what was in the forecast. I will be keeping an eye on this to see if this trend continues on both Monday and Tuesday.
The dominant headline for both Monday and Tuesday undoubtedly has to do with the increasing heat and humidity. We will get in one more somewhat decent night of sleeping before we see the humidity levels begin to markedly increase after sunrise on Monday morning. An area of high pressure will dominate New England on Monday, and I fully expect that several locations across Southern New England will reach and pass 90 degrees during the afternoon. Areas further north across Northern New England will experience cooler temperatures generally in the 80s, however, humidity here will also be on the rise for Monday. For the most part, Monday looks to be a dry day. Due to the increased humidity levels and very warm temperatures, we will see some destabilization of the atmosphere Monday afternoon. With this in mind, I expect that mainly western locations of New England see the possibility of a late afternoon thunderstorm or two. I do not see a widespread thunderstorm event, as we lack the needed "spark" in the atmosphere to generate anything organized. This looks to occur on Tuesday.
We will continue to see very hot and oppressively humid conditions during the day on Tuesday. In fact, depending on the amount of cloud cover that exists, we could end the day warmer than we did on Monday! With very high humidity levels, we could see Heat Indices approach 100 degrees, particularly closer to the New York City region. Tuesday, without question also looks to be the most active day over the next two days and even the entire week. A cold front will begin to approach from the Great Lakes region overnight Tuesday. With this in mind, any thunderstorm which develops Tuesday will do so in an atmosphere very rich in moisture. Instability levels could really ramp up during the afternoon. The difference Tuesday versus Monday has to do with the fact that the cold front will be much closer to New England, and hence we will have the needed "spark" to touch off some organized thunderstorm development. I am concerned about the potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon as this cold front inches closer to New England. It appears that the greatest threats from these storms will be in the form of large hail, damaging winds, as well as very heavy rain.
The forecasting of this severe weather potential on Tuesday has become tricky at best. Some of the models are in disagreement with each other on the timing of the approaching cold front. It appears at this time that a pre-frontal trough could develop out ahead of the front overnight Monday in New York. This could pose a threat for showers and thunderstorms overnight Monday in New England. With this in mind, this pre-frontal trough may make its approach to New England during the morning commute. As a result, the threat for showers and thunderstorms would exist Tuesday morning. If this were to be the case, then the atmosphere would experience more difficulty destabilizing before the front approaches New England after peak heating hours, and hence, the overall severe weather potential would decrease. If this pre-frontal trough were to slow its progression down, then this would (provided we do not see clouds move in due to Monday night thunderstorms) allow the atmosphere to become moderately to very unstable during the afternoon. This would increase the potential for severe thunderstorm development into an organized line, with the greatest threat being damaging winds. Tornado potential does not appear that great, but this can never be completely ruled out in a severe weather episode.
The severe weather threat should diminish after dark Tuesday, but the front may not completely clear New England until Wednesday morning. This would most likely result in a rather muggy Tuesday night for Southeastern CT, Southern RI and Southeastern MA.
We are in for a very beautiful stretch of summer-like weather once we get through Tuesday. Very dry weather and very low humidity will dominate!
Check back tomorrow for more updates!
-Alex Avalos
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